What my family and I own: top 3 ideas
The favorites of what I have written so far.
Now that I have been writing about what my family and I own for a little over six months, there is a good mix of material that makes up a good portion of our investments.
Therefore, I’ll outline what I view to be the highest conviction ideas based on current price versus future expectations. Meanwhile, this is the last week to get 50% off your first month. Not happy with what I wrote? No problem, DM me and I’ll refund you in full.
Now for why you follow me… what am I investing in? For each of these three, I’ve put additional dollars to work in them over the last month at prices similar to where they are currently trading.
Aimia: Aimia (AIM.TO) is one of the top equity investments in my Mom’s account. For my PA, I’m looking toward who I believe they could acquire. Why? 1) Sure, I’d love a premium 2) Because I think the acquisition targets are very strong and inexpensive companies with stellar balance sheets.
As I review in the article, they’ve already given significant hints on who they may acquire, which I’ve outlined in detail here:
ECIP Recipients: From a risk/reward perspective, this is the best investment I have in my portfolio at the moment. There are three banks I’m watching that I believe have a clear path to meet the Deep Impact requirement that should allow them to turn cheap preferred shares into tangible equity. This will allow them to increase funding and should meaningfully improve shareholder returns over time.
Two of the three recipients have been more promotional in how they have been updating the public. However, my favorite opportunity has been quiet - not even disclosing they notified the Treasury of their intent to redeem the ECIP funds. However, look beneath the surface and you’ll find an opportunity that is highly profitable, already buying back shares and backed by some of my favorite value investors. Why they trade at such a discount to their future TBV is a mystery I think will be resolved once the market gets better visibility. In the meantime, keep buying back those shares!
The Cash Machine: I LOVE this company. They are in the early innings of a compounding organically for a long-time to come. As I’ll tell anyone who will listen, they have similarities to Sofwave - but without the competition or exposure to demand decreasing during a recession.
Running some conservative models across bear, base and bull scenarios, I get to an expected 5 year IRR that ranges from 12-30%. If demand outpaces my conservative estimates or they decide to pull the pricing lever - there is significant upside from these figures.
Finally - here is one just for fun. As anyone who has followed me will understand, I love great capital allocators who treat shareholders as partners. They are exceptionally rare.
Rhys Summerton meets the criteria and I think iOCO, which trades under 7x expected FY FCF is in the early innings of what could be Argent 2.0 playbook execution.
iOCO: Deep Value with a Compounding Playbook
Not investment advice: First, read my full disclaimer here.
More to come shortly. If you like these articles, I’m highly confident you’ll like what is to come. More investments that have slipped through the cracks and offer great return potential - some with an intention to hold short-term, others long-term. All owned by myself or funds managed on behalf of my family.
Onwards and Upwards,
Andrew Pogue
andrew.r.pogue@gmail.com
I or the funds I manage own positions of the securities discussed. This could change at any time. Please make sure to review my full TOC here.